This study explores the macroeconomic consequences of currency devaluation in Armenia within the context of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), emphasizing the balance between opportunities and risks in a small, open economy. The main goal of the research is to determine whether devaluation could serve as a tool to boost exports or if it poses significant threats to price and financial stability. The focus of the analysis is Armenia’s monetary system and its interactions with other EAEU countries: Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, as well as the Euro Area, which offers a contrasting framework for comparison.

A quantitative and comparative approach was adopted, using annual monetary aggregate data (M0–M3) from 2020 to 2024. The analysis involved calculating absolute values, annual growth rates, and linear trend predictability (R²) to evaluate the stability of Armenia’s monetary expansion and its alignment with regional and global trends. High R² values served as indicators of predictable monetary behavior, which is essential for assessing the potential impact of currency devaluation.

The findings show that Armenia’s monetary aggregates expanded steadily and predictably, with cumulative growth between 23% and 26% and R² values above 0.995. Growth in cash (M0) and broad money (M2) was particularly pronounced, comparable to smaller EAEU members such as Kyrgyzstan and exceeding Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia in terms of expansion rates. This monetary stability has supported investment, increased financial activity among households, and enhanced the potential for export growth, with average GDP growth of approximately 5.6% and potential export growth around 4.2%. Comparative analysis highlights that Armenia’s monetary trajectory differs from larger EAEU economies and the Euro Area, reflecting the dual influence of regional integration and exposure to global monetary conditions.

So, Armenia’s monetary expansion has provided positive effects for its small and open economy by fostering economic activity, improving export potential, and supporting financial stability. Although currency devaluation could temporarily enhance competitiveness, high import dependence makes inflation a significant risk. Therefore, any devaluation strategy should be paired with careful monetary and liquidity management. Overall, Armenia demonstrates an example of predictable and responsive monetary policy within the EAEU framework, particularly when compared to medium and large member economies.